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Virginia Senate 2026

Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.

D+16.4

Mark Warner (D) 48.9% vs Bert Mizusawa (R) 32.4%

2 polls in the average · latest Jun 16, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size

Matchup: verified nominees ✓

Limited polling. This average is based on only 2 polls, so it can swing sharply with each new poll. Treat it as a rough indication, not a precise estimate.

Every poll in the average

Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.

30%35%40%45%50%55%Jun 2Jun 30The Public Sentiment Institute · Jun 12–16, 2026: Warner 50%The Public Sentiment Institute · Jun 12–16, 2026: Mizusawa 33%The Public Sentiment Institute · Jun 12–16, 2026: Warner 48%The Public Sentiment Institute · Jun 12–16, 2026: Mizusawa 32%48.9 — current average32.4 — current average

Polls in this average

Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Mark Warner and Bert Mizusawa. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.

PollsterGradeDatesSampleWarner %Mizusawa %Margin
The Public Sentiment Institute—Jun 12–16, 2026—5033D+17.0↗
The Public Sentiment Institute—Jun 12–16, 2026996 RV4832D+16.0↗

Other 2026 Senate polls in Virginia

General-election polls for this race that are not in the average — they tested a different matchup than Warner vs Mizusawa. Shown for transparency; primaries are excluded entirely.

PollsterDatesTop results
The Public Sentiment InstituteJun 12–16, 2026Mark Warner 51 · David Williams 33 (+1 more)
The Public Sentiment InstituteJun 12–16, 2026Mark Warner 48 · David Williams 32 (+1 more)
The Public Sentiment InstituteJun 12–16, 2026Mark Warner 48 · Kim Farington 31 (+1 more)
The Public Sentiment InstituteJun 12–16, 2026Mark Warner 51 · Kim Farington 33 (+1 more)

Candidates

Democrats
  • Mark Warner
Republicans
  • Bert Mizusawa
  • David Williams
  • Kim Farington
Other
  • Mark Moran (I)

Party labels curated from public sources.