Texas Senate 2026
Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.
D+2.7
James Talarico (D) 48.5% vs Ken Paxton (R) 45.8%
55 polls in the average · latest Nov 1, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size
Matchup: verified nominees ✓ · Avg pollster grade 2.4 / 3.0
Every poll in the average
Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.
Polls in this average
Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both James Talarico and Ken Paxton. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | Talarico % | Paxton % | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 3.0 | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2026 | 1,215 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7.0 | ↗ |
| ActiVote | — | Oct 22–28, 2026 | 400 LV | 52.1 | 47.9 | D+4.2 | ↗ |
| Quantus Insights | — | Oct 26–28, 2026 | 1,221 LV | 48.4 | 49.4 | R+1.0 | ↗ |
| A2 Insights | — | Oct 23–27, 2026 | 631 LV | 50.2 | 47.2 | D+3.0 | ↗ |
| CNN/SSRS | — | Oct 20–27, 2026 | 923 LV | 49 | 43 | D+6.0 | ↗ |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | — | Oct 21–25, 2026 | 2,000 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2.0 | ↗ |
| ActiVote | — | Oct 17–21, 2026 | 400 LV | 51 | 49 | D+2.0 | ↗ |
| YouGov | 3.0 | Oct 13–21, 2026 | 1,000 RV | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 | ↗ |
| VoteHub/Verasight | — | Oct 1–20, 2026 | 601 LV | 47.6 | 45.2 | D+2.4 | ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2.8 | Oct 15–19, 2026 | 1,398 LV | 49 | 49 | Even | ↗ |
| Emerson College | 2.9 | Oct 17–19, 2026 | 1,000 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 | ↗ |
| Pollfinity | — | Oct 15–18, 2026 | 278 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 | ↗ |
| Slingshot Strategies | 1.4 | Oct 15–18, 2026 | 969 LV | 51 | 47 | D+4.0 | ↗ |
| ActiVote | — | Sep 30 – Oct 14, 2026 | 400 LV | 51.9 | 48.1 | D+3.8 | ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2.0 | Oct 13–14, 2026 | 1,200 LV | 48 | 49 | R+1.0 | ↗ |
| New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group | — | Oct 9–13, 2026 | 934 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 | ↗ |
| Quantus Insights | — | Oct 9–11, 2026 | 854 LV | 46.7 | 47.2 | R+0.5 | ↗ |
| ReconMR/Siena University | — | Oct 5–8, 2026 | 617 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 | ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2.8 | Sep 24–28, 2026 | 881 LV | 51 | 49 | D+2.0 | ↗ |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | — | Sep 20–28, 2026 | 800 LV | 46.6 | 44.2 | D+2.4 | ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | 2.4 | Sep 18–28, 2026 | 850 LV | 45 | 45 | Even | ↗ |
| Slingshot Strategies | 1.4 | Sep 19–22, 2026 | 1,007 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4.0 | ↗ |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | — | Sep 15–19, 2026 | 1,800 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 | ↗ |
| Emerson College | 2.9 | Sep 12–14, 2026 | 1,000 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 | ↗ |
| ReconMR/Siena University | — | Sep 8–11, 2026 | 614 LV | 49 | 43 | D+6.0 | ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2.0 | Sep 8–9, 2026 | 1,200 LV | 47.1 | 45.6 | D+1.5 | ↗ |
| YouGov | 3.0 | Aug 27 – Sep 4, 2026 | 1,000 RV | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 | ↗ |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 1.7 | Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2026 | 895 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 | ↗ |
| Slingshot Strategies | 1.4 | Aug 21–24, 2026 | 1,000 LV | 48 | 42 | D+6.0 | ↗ |
| The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov | — | Aug 5–13, 2026 | 1,218 RV | 42 | 39 | D+3.0 | ↗ |
| Emerson College | 2.9 | Aug 9–10, 2026 | 1,000 LV | 46 | 47 | R+1.0 | ↗ |
| Wedgewood Polls | — | Jul 30–31, 2026 | 800 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 | ↗ |
| YouGov BlueD partisan | — | Jul 15–31, 2026 | 1,001 RV | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 | ↗ |
| ReconMR/Siena University | — | Jul 27–30, 2026 | 619 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4.0 | ↗ |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | — | Jul 27–30, 2026 | 1,200 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 | ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2.8 | Jul 23–27, 2026 | 1,006 RV | 51 | 48 | D+3.0 | ↗ |
| Slingshot Strategies | 1.4 | Jul 15–17, 2026 | 1,048 LV | 45 | 40 | D+5.0 | ↗ |
| A2 Insights | — | Jun 23–28, 2026 | 618 LV | 48.4 | 46.1 | D+2.3 | ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 3.0 | Jun 19–27, 2026 | 656 LV | 47 | 47 | Even | ↗ |
| SoCal StrategiesR partisan | — | Jun 21, 2026 | 800 LV | 47.1 | 48.5 | R+1.4 | ↗ |
| Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov | — | Jun 5–12, 2026 | 1,200 RV | 42 | 43 | R+1.0 | ↗ |
| Quantus Insights | — | Jun 3–4, 2026 | 800 LV | 43 | 45 | R+2.0 | ↗ |
| ReconMR/Siena University | — | Jun 1–4, 2026 | 807 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 | ↗ |
| Slingshot StrategiesD partisan | 1.4 | May 27–28, 2026 | 1,670 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 | ↗ |
| Public Policy PollingD partisan | 1.4 | May 22–23, 2026 | 643 LV | 45 | 38 | D+7.0 | ↗ |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | — | Apr 22 – May 6, 2026 | 1,223 LV | 45 | 45 | Even | ↗ |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | — | Apr 17–20, 2026 | 1,018 LV | 46 | 41 | D+5.0 | ↗ |
| YouGov | 3.0 | Apr 10–20, 2026 | 1,200 RV | 42 | 34 | D+8.0 | ↗ |
| Impact Research | 1.5 | Mar 12–17, 2026 | 900 LV | 44 | 43 | D+1.0 | ↗ |
| Public Policy PollingD partisan | 1.4 | Mar 4–5, 2026 | 576 A | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 | ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | 2.4 | Jan 20–31, 2026 | 1,502 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 | ↗ |
| Emerson College | 2.9 | Jan 10–12, 2026 | 1,165 RV | 45.6 | 45.6 | Even | ↗ |
| Ragnar Research PartnersR partisan | 1.3 | Nov 12–17, 2025 | 1,000 LV | 44 | 44 | Even | ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | 2.4 | Sep 19 – Oct 1, 2025 | 1,650 RV | 46 | 49 | R+3.0 | ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | 2.4 | Sep 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 RV | 37 | 38 | R+1.0 | ↗ |
Other 2026 Senate polls in Texas
General-election polls for this race that are not in the average — they tested a different matchup than Talarico vs Paxton. Shown for transparency; primaries are excluded entirely.
| Pollster | Dates | Top results |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Public Opinion Research | Apr 17–20, 2026 | James Talarico 44 · John Cornyn 41 |
| YouGov | Apr 10–12, 2026 | James Talarico 40 · John Cornyn 33 |
| Public Policy PollingD partisan | Mar 4–5, 2026 | James Talarico 44 · John Cornyn 43 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jan 20–31, 2026 | John Cornyn 44 · James Talarico 43 |
| Emerson College | Jan 10–12, 2026 | John Cornyn 46.9 · James Talarico 44.1 |
| Ragnar Research PartnersR partisan | Nov 12–17, 2025 | John Cornyn 46 · James Talarico 40 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 19 – Oct 1, 2025 | John Cornyn 48 · James Talarico 45 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–24, 2025 | John Cornyn 41 · James Talarico 35 |
Candidates
Democrats
- James Talarico
Republicans
- John Cornyn
- Ken Paxton
Other
- Ted Brown (L)
Party labels curated from public sources.