Tennessee Governor 2026
Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.
R+12.0
Marsha Blackburn (R) 45.1% vs Jerri Green (D) 33.1%
5 polls in the average · latest Oct 16, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size
Matchup: verified nominees ✓ · Avg pollster grade 1.7 / 3.0
Every poll in the average
Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.
Polls in this average
Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Jerri Green and Marsha Blackburn. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | Green % | Blackburn % | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spry Strategies | 1.5 | Oct 10–16, 2026 | 635 LV | 32 | 44 | R+12.0 | ↗ |
| TargetSmartD partisan | 2.0 | Sep 9–12, 2026 | 600 LV | 36 | 45 | R+9.0 | ↗ |
| Targoz Market Research | 1.8 | Aug 15–26, 2026 | 1,149 RV | 33 | 46 | R+13.0 | ↗ |
| Targoz Market Research | 1.8 | Apr 20–27, 2026 | 1,157 RV | 27 | 51 | R+24.0 | ↗ |
| Quantus InsightsR partisan | — | Aug 5–7, 2025 | 600 RV | 28 | 49 | R+21.0 | ↗ |
Candidates
Democrats
- Jerri Green
Republicans
- Marsha Blackburn
Party labels curated from public sources.