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Pennsylvania Governor 2026

Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.

D+21.4

Josh Shapiro (D) 55.0% vs Stacy Garrity (R) 33.6%

18 polls in the average · latest Oct 21, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size

Matchup: verified nominees ✓

Every poll in the average

Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.

20%30%40%50%60%Nov ’25Jan ’26Mar ’26May ’26Jul ’26Sep ’26Nov ’26ActiVote · Oct 1–21, 2026: Shapiro 61.5%ActiVote · Oct 1–21, 2026: Garrity 38.5%Z to A Research · Sep 28 – Oct 1, 2026: Shapiro 53%Z to A Research · Sep 28 – Oct 1, 2026: Garrity 34%Bravo Group · Sep 16–22, 2026: Shapiro 55%Bravo Group · Sep 16–22, 2026: Garrity 28%The New York Times/Siena University · Sep 15–22, 2026: Shapiro 58%The New York Times/Siena University · Sep 15–22, 2026: Garrity 38%Franklin & Marshall College · Aug 17–23, 2026: Shapiro 50%Franklin & Marshall College · Aug 17–23, 2026: Garrity 25%Bravo Group · Aug 18–22, 2026: Shapiro 56%Bravo Group · Aug 18–22, 2026: Garrity 25%The New York Times/Siena University · Aug 17–21, 2026: Shapiro 55%The New York Times/Siena University · Aug 17–21, 2026: Garrity 39%The New York Times/Siena University · Aug 17–21, 2026: Shapiro 54%The New York Times/Siena University · Aug 17–21, 2026: Garrity 37%National Public Affairs · Jul 26–30, 2026: Shapiro 50%National Public Affairs · Jul 26–30, 2026: Garrity 43%Bravo Group · Jul 17–24, 2026: Shapiro 53%Bravo Group · Jul 17–24, 2026: Garrity 28%Franklin & Marshall College · Jun 8–14, 2026: Shapiro 50%Franklin & Marshall College · Jun 8–14, 2026: Garrity 28%MAD Global Strategy · Jun 9–11, 2026: Shapiro 48%MAD Global Strategy · Jun 9–11, 2026: Garrity 31%Bravo Group · May 20–24, 2026: Shapiro 53%Bravo Group · May 20–24, 2026: Garrity 29%Susquehanna Polling & Research · Mar 18–29, 2026: Shapiro 58%Susquehanna Polling & Research · Mar 18–29, 2026: Garrity 36%Franklin & Marshall College · Feb 18 – Mar 1, 2026: Shapiro 48%Franklin & Marshall College · Feb 18 – Mar 1, 2026: Garrity 28%Quinnipiac University · Feb 19–23, 2026: Shapiro 55%Quinnipiac University · Feb 19–23, 2026: Garrity 37%Quinnipiac University · Sep 25–29, 2025: Shapiro 55%Quinnipiac University · Sep 25–29, 2025: Garrity 39%Susquehanna Polling & Research · Sep 22–28, 2025: Shapiro 54%Susquehanna Polling & Research · Sep 22–28, 2025: Garrity 36%55.0 — current average33.6 — current average

Polls in this average

Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Josh Shapiro and Stacy Garrity. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.

PollsterGradeDatesSampleShapiro %Garrity %Margin
ActiVote—Oct 1–21, 2026400 LV61.538.5D+23.0↗
Z to A Research—Sep 28 – Oct 1, 2026630 LV5334D+19.0↗
Bravo Group—Sep 16–22, 2026624 RV5528D+27.0↗
The New York Times/Siena University3.0Sep 15–22, 2026615 LV5838D+20.0↗
Franklin & Marshall College2.4Aug 17–23, 2026501 RV5025D+25.0↗
Bravo Group—Aug 18–22, 2026711 LV5625D+31.0↗
The New York Times/Siena University3.0Aug 17–21, 2026760 LV5539D+16.0↗
The New York Times/Siena University3.0Aug 17–21, 2026760 RV5437D+17.0↗
National Public AffairsR partisan—Jul 26–30, 2026600 LV5043D+7.0↗
Bravo Group—Jul 17–24, 2026630 LV5328D+25.0↗
Franklin & Marshall College2.4Jun 8–14, 2026546 RV5028D+22.0↗
MAD Global Strategy—Jun 9–11, 2026600 LV4831D+17.0↗
Bravo Group—May 20–24, 2026684 LV5329D+24.0↗
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchR partisan—Mar 18–29, 2026700 LV5836D+22.0↗
Franklin & Marshall College2.4Feb 18 – Mar 1, 2026834 RV4828D+20.0↗
Quinnipiac University2.8Feb 19–23, 2026836 RV5537D+18.0↗
Quinnipiac University2.8Sep 25–29, 20251,579 RV5539D+16.0↗
Susquehanna Polling & Research—Sep 22–28, 2025700 LV5436D+18.0↗

Candidates

Democrats
  • Josh Shapiro
Republicans
  • Stacy Garrity

Party labels curated from public sources.