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Nevada Governor 2026

Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.

D+2.0

Aaron Ford (D) 44.4% vs Joe Lombardo (R) 42.3%

7 polls in the average · latest Oct 25, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size

Matchup: verified nominees ✓ · Avg pollster grade 2.6 / 3.0

Every poll in the average

Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.

35%40%45%50%55%Nov ’25Jan ’26Mar ’26May ’26Jul ’26Sep ’26Nov ’26Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies · Oct 20–25, 2026: Ford 49%Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies · Oct 20–25, 2026: Lombardo 45%Noble Predictive Insights · Sep 22–26, 2026: Ford 37%Noble Predictive Insights · Sep 22–26, 2026: Lombardo 38%Emerson College · Sep 5–8, 2026: Ford 44.2%Emerson College · Sep 5–8, 2026: Lombardo 42%Noble Predictive Insights · Mar 10–13, 2026: Ford 38%Noble Predictive Insights · Mar 10–13, 2026: Lombardo 39%Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies · Feb 11–17, 2026: Ford 43%Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies · Feb 11–17, 2026: Lombardo 46%Emerson College · Nov 16–18, 2025: Ford 41.1%Emerson College · Nov 16–18, 2025: Lombardo 41.1%Noble Predictive Insights · Oct 7–13, 2025: Ford 37%Noble Predictive Insights · Oct 7–13, 2025: Lombardo 40%44.4 — current average42.3 — current average

Polls in this average

Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Aaron Ford and Joe Lombardo. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.

PollsterGradeDatesSampleFord %Lombardo %Margin
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies2.6Oct 20–25, 2026950 LV4945D+4.0↗
Noble Predictive Insights2.4Sep 22–26, 2026800 RV3738R+1.0↗
Emerson College2.9Sep 5–8, 2026680 LV44.242D+2.2↗
Noble Predictive Insights2.4Mar 10–13, 2026845 RV3839R+1.0↗
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion StrategiesD partisan2.6Feb 11–17, 2026800 LV4346R+3.0↗
Emerson College2.9Nov 16–18, 2025800 RV41.141.1Even↗
Noble Predictive Insights2.4Oct 7–13, 2025766 RV3740R+3.0↗

Candidates

Democrats
  • Aaron Ford
Republicans
  • Joe Lombardo

Party labels curated from public sources.