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New Hampshire Governor 2026

Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.

R+7.2

Kelly Ayotte (R) 49.4% vs Cinde Warmington (D) 42.2%

13 polls in the average · latest Oct 31, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size

Matchup: most-polled pairing (primary not yet decided) · Avg pollster grade 2.3 / 3.0

Every poll in the average

Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.

30%35%40%45%50%55%60%May ’26Jul ’26Sep ’26Nov ’26University of New Hampshire · Oct 27–31, 2026: Warmington 48%University of New Hampshire · Oct 27–31, 2026: Ayotte 48%National Public Affairs · Oct 25–29, 2026: Warmington 43%National Public Affairs · Oct 25–29, 2026: Ayotte 52%Saint Anselm · Oct 19–20, 2026: Warmington 42%Saint Anselm · Oct 19–20, 2026: Ayotte 50%University of New Hampshire · Oct 2–19, 2026: Warmington 42%University of New Hampshire · Oct 2–19, 2026: Ayotte 48%The New York Times/Siena University · Sep 15–22, 2026: Warmington 41%The New York Times/Siena University · Sep 15–22, 2026: Ayotte 52%University of New Hampshire · Sep 17–21, 2026: Warmington 43%University of New Hampshire · Sep 17–21, 2026: Ayotte 47%co/efficient · Sep 9–11, 2026: Warmington 34%co/efficient · Sep 9–11, 2026: Ayotte 55%University of New Hampshire · Aug 20–24, 2026: Warmington 39%University of New Hampshire · Aug 20–24, 2026: Ayotte 49%Saint Anselm · Aug 17–18, 2026: Warmington 38%Saint Anselm · Aug 17–18, 2026: Ayotte 49%Saint Anselm · Jun 24–25, 2026: Warmington 37%Saint Anselm · Jun 24–25, 2026: Ayotte 45%University of New Hampshire · Jun 18–23, 2026: Warmington 39%University of New Hampshire · Jun 18–23, 2026: Ayotte 44%University of New Hampshire · Apr 17–21, 2026: Warmington 39%University of New Hampshire · Apr 17–21, 2026: Ayotte 47%Saint Anselm · Mar 16–18, 2026: Warmington 39%Saint Anselm · Mar 16–18, 2026: Ayotte 46%49.4 — current average42.2 — current average

Polls in this average

Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Cinde Warmington and Kelly Ayotte. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.

PollsterGradeDatesSampleWarmington %Ayotte %Margin
University of New Hampshire2.4Oct 27–31, 20262,040 LV4848Even↗
National Public AffairsR partisan—Oct 25–29, 2026800 LV4352R+9.0↗
Saint Anselm2.4Oct 19–20, 20261,672 LV4250R+8.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Oct 2–19, 2026600 LV4248R+6.0↗
The New York Times/Siena University3.0Sep 15–22, 2026613 LV4152R+11.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Sep 17–21, 20261,418 LV4347R+4.0↗
co/efficient1.1Sep 9–11, 2026958 LV3455R+21.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Aug 20–24, 20261,878 LV3949R+10.0↗
Saint Anselm2.4Aug 17–18, 20261,411 LV3849R+11.0↗
Saint Anselm2.4Jun 24–25, 20261,614 RV3745R+8.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Jun 18–23, 2026—3944R+5.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Apr 17–21, 20261,117 LV3947R+8.0↗
Saint Anselm2.4Mar 16–18, 20261,491 RV3946R+7.0↗

Other 2026 Governor polls in New Hampshire

General-election polls for this race that are not in the average — they tested a different matchup than Warmington vs Ayotte. Shown for transparency; primaries are excluded entirely.

PollsterDatesTop results
Saint AnselmMar 16–18, 2026Kelly Ayotte 45 · Jon Kiper 31
yes. every kid.Jan 28–29, 2026Kelly Ayotte 47 · Jon Kiper 37
University of New HampshireJan 15–19, 2026Kelly Ayotte 50 · Jon Kiper 39
co/efficientOct 9, 2025 – Oct 13, 2024Kelly Ayotte 43 · Dem 40

Candidates

Democrats
  • Cinde Warmington
  • Cindy Warmington
  • Dem
Republicans
  • Kelly Ayotte

Party labels curated from public sources.