North Carolina Senate 2026
Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.
Roy Cooper (D) 51.9% vs Michael Whatley (R) 41.3%
45 polls in the average · latest Nov 1, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size
Matchup: verified nominees ✓ · Avg pollster grade 2.2 / 3.0
Every poll in the average
Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.
Polls in this average
Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | Cooper % | Whatley % | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2.7 | Oct 28 – Nov 1, 2026 | 1,459 LV | 56.4 | 41.5 | D+14.9 | ↗ |
| East Carolina University | — | Oct 26–29, 2026 | 1,041 LV | 54 | 45 | D+9.0 | ↗ |
| Quantus Insights | — | Oct 24–25, 2026 | 722 LV | 51.4 | 42.8 | D+8.6 | ↗ |
| ActiVote | — | Oct 8–20, 2026 | 400 LV | 56.9 | 43.1 | D+13.8 | ↗ |
| Harper Polling | — | Oct 18–20, 2026 | 600 LV | 49 | 39 | D+10.0 | ↗ |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2.5 | Oct 1–20, 2026 | 620 LV | 54 | 40 | D+14.0 | ↗ |
| SurveyUSA | 2.8 | Oct 7–11, 2026 | 643 LV | 54 | 40 | D+14.0 | ↗ |
| Elon University/YouGov | — | Sep 29 – Oct 8, 2026 | 561 LV | 52 | 39 | D+13.0 | ↗ |
| Change ResearchD partisan | 1.4 | Oct 1–7, 2026 | 829 LV | 50 | 40 | D+10.0 | ↗ |
| East Carolina University | — | Sep 30 – Oct 3, 2026 | 810 LV | 53 | 46 | D+7.0 | ↗ |
| Big Data Poll | 1.1 | Sep 27–29, 2026 | 642 LV | 51 | 39 | D+12.0 | ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2.0 | Sep 16–17, 2026 | 1,200 LV | 48.4 | 42.5 | D+5.9 | ↗ |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2.5 | Sep 9–16, 2026 | 706 LV | 50 | 42 | D+8.0 | ↗ |
| Harper Polling | — | Sep 13–15, 2026 | 608 LV | 49 | 34 | D+15.0 | ↗ |
| East Carolina University | — | Aug 31 – Sep 3, 2026 | 675 LV | 52 | 44 | D+8.0 | ↗ |
| Elon University/YouGov | — | Aug 21–31, 2026 | 565 LV | 49 | 38 | D+11.0 | ↗ |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2.5 | Aug 3–12, 2026 | 660 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 | ↗ |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2.5 | Aug 3–12, 2026 | 800 RV | 48 | 41 | D+7.0 | ↗ |
| Harper Polling | — | Aug 9–10, 2026 | 600 LV | 51.5 | 39 | D+12.5 | ↗ |
| Change ResearchD partisan | 1.4 | Aug 3–6, 2026 | 915 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7.0 | ↗ |
| Change Research | 1.4 | Jul 29 – Aug 1, 2026 | 967 LV | 50 | 41 | D+9.0 | ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2.8 | Jul 23–27, 2026 | 1,005 RV | 53 | 44 | D+9.0 | ↗ |
| Elon University/YouGov | — | Jul 21–23, 2026 | 466 LV | 53 | 42 | D+11.0 | ↗ |
| Elon University/YouGov | — | Jul 21–23, 2026 | 717 RV | 51 | 35 | D+16.0 | ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling | 1.4 | Jul 10–11, 2026 | 759 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 | ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 3.0 | Jun 15–27, 2026 | 601 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7.0 | ↗ |
| YouGov | 3.0 | Jun 1–10, 2026 | 905 LV | 48 | 34 | D+14.0 | ↗ |
| Harper Polling | — | May 10–11, 2026 | 600 LV | 49.8 | 38.7 | D+11.1 | ↗ |
| Change ResearchD partisan | 1.4 | May 4–8, 2026 | 957 LV | 49 | 42 | D+7.0 | ↗ |
| Opinion DiagnosticsR partisan | — | Apr 21–24, 2026 | 830 LV | 50.4 | 41.4 | D+9.0 | ↗ |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2.5 | Mar 26 – Apr 6, 2026 | 800 RV | 49 | 39 | D+10.0 | ↗ |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2.5 | Mar 26 – Apr 6, 2026 | 703 LV | 50 | 42 | D+8.0 | ↗ |
| Harper Polling | — | Mar 22–23, 2026 | 600 LV | 48.9 | 41.1 | D+7.8 | ↗ |
| YouGov | 3.0 | Mar 9–18, 2026 | 871 LV | 48 | 34 | D+14.0 | ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling | 1.4 | Mar 13–14, 2026 | 556 RV | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 | ↗ |
| Nexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions | — | Mar 8–9, 2026 | 800 LV | 50 | 32 | D+18.0 | ↗ |
| Change Research | 1.4 | Jan 31 – Feb 4, 2026 | 1,069 RV | 50 | 40 | D+10.0 | ↗ |
| TIPP InsightsR partisan | 1.8 | Jan 12–15, 2026 | 1,512 RV | 48 | 24 | D+24.0 | ↗ |
| Change ResearchD partisan | 1.4 | Jan 5–7, 2026 | 1,105 LV | 47 | 42 | D+5.0 | ↗ |
| Harper Polling | — | Nov 9–10, 2025 | 600 LV | 47 | 39 | D+8.0 | ↗ |
| Harper Polling | — | Sep 14–15, 2025 | 600 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4.0 | ↗ |
| Change ResearchD partisan | 1.4 | Sep 2–8, 2025 | 855 LV | 48 | 41 | D+7.0 | ↗ |
| Harper Polling | — | Aug 11–12, 2025 | 600 LV | 47.3 | 39.1 | D+8.2 | ↗ |
| Emerson College | 2.9 | Jul 28–30, 2025 | 1,000 RV | 46.7 | 41.4 | D+5.3 | ↗ |
| Victory Insights | 1.3 | Jul 28–30, 2025 | 600 LV | 44.4 | 43.5 | D+0.9 | ↗ |
Other 2026 Senate polls in North Carolina
General-election polls for this race that are not in the average — they tested a different matchup than Cooper vs Whatley. Shown for transparency; primaries are excluded entirely.
| Pollster | Dates | Top results |
|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling | Nov 9–10, 2025 | Roy Cooper 48.1 · Don Brown 38 |
| Public Policy Polling | Mar 4–5, 2025 | Roy Cooper 47 · Thom Thillis 43 |
| Victory Insights | Nov 26–29, 2024 | Roy Cooper 45.5 · Lara Trump 44.3 |
| Victory Insights | Nov 26–29, 2024 | Roy Cooper 45.1 · Thom Thillis 44.1 |
Candidates
- Don Brown
- Roy Cooper
- Michael Whatley
Party labels curated from public sources.