Montana Senate 2026
Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.
Kurt Alme (R) 47.1% vs Alani Bankhead (D) 28.8%
15 polls in the average · latest Sep 15, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size
Matchup: verified nominees ✓
Every poll in the average
Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.
Polls in this average
Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Alani Bankhead and Kurt Alme. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | Bankhead % | Alme % | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | — | Sep 14–15, 2026 | 625 LV | 23 | 44 | R+21.0 | ↗ |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 2.6 | Aug 1–4, 2026 | 800 LV | 15 | 45 | R+30.0 | ↗ |
| Tavern Research | — | Jul 23–27, 2026 | 517 LV | 41 | 59 | R+18.0 | ↗ |
| Tavern Research | — | Jul 23–27, 2026 | 517 LV | 22 | 49 | R+27.0 | ↗ |
| Tavern Research | — | Jul 23–27, 2026 | 517 LV | 24 | 49 | R+25.0 | ↗ |
| Tavern Research | — | Jul 23–27, 2026 | 517 LV | 36 | 56 | R+20.0 | ↗ |
| GQR | 2.0 | Jul 23–26, 2026 | 500 LV | 44 | 52 | R+8.0 | ↗ |
| GQR | 2.0 | Jul 23–26, 2026 | 500 LV | 22 | 41 | R+19.0 | ↗ |
| GQR | 2.0 | Jul 23–26, 2026 | 500 LV | 40 | 44 | R+4.0 | ↗ |
| The Bullfinch Group | — | Jul 13–16, 2026 | 793 LV | 22 | 36 | R+14.0 | ↗ |
| GrayhouseR partisan | — | Jun 23–24, 2026 | 500 LV | 25 | 41 | R+16.0 | ↗ |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion StrategiesD partisan | 2.6 | Jun 18–24, 2026 | 800 LV | 43 | 49 | R+6.0 | ↗ |
| Tavern ResearchD partisan | — | Jun 16–19, 2026 | 400 LV | 44 | 56 | R+12.0 | ↗ |
| Tavern Research | — | Jun 16–19, 2026 | 400 LV | 27 | 49 | R+22.0 | ↗ |
| Public Opinion StrategiesR partisan | 1.6 | Jun 8–11, 2026 | 500 LV | 25 | 44 | R+19.0 | ↗ |
Other 2026 Senate polls in Montana
General-election polls for this race that are not in the average — they tested a different matchup than Bankhead vs Alme. Shown for transparency; primaries are excluded entirely.
| Pollster | Dates | Top results |
|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | Jul 23–27, 2026 | Kurt Alme 51 · Seth Bodnar 49 |
| Tavern Research | Jul 23–27, 2026 | Kurt Alme 50 · Seth Bodnar 45 (+1 more) |
| GQR | Jul 23–26, 2026 | Seth Bodnar 44 · Kurt Alme 40 (+1 more) |
| GQR | Jul 23–26, 2026 | Seth Bodnar 50 · Kurt Alme 44 |
| Tavern ResearchD partisan | Jun 16–19, 2026 | Kurt Alme 50 · Seth Bodnar 50 |
| Tavern Research | May 13–18, 2026 | Kurt Alme 58 · Reilly Neill 42 |
| Tavern Research | May 13–18, 2026 | Kurt Alme 50 · Seth Bodnar 50 |
| Tavern Research | May 13–18, 2026 | Kurt Alme 46 · Seth Bodnar 26 (+2 more) |
Candidates
- Alani Bankhead
- Reilly Neill
- Kurt Alme
- Kyle Austin (L)
- Seth Bodnar (I)
- Tom Jandron (L)
Party labels curated from public sources.