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Minnesota Senate 2026

Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.

D+3.1

Peggy Flanagan (D) 47.4% vs Michele Tafoya (R) 44.2%

9 polls in the average · latest Nov 1, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size

Matchup: most-polled pairing (primary not yet decided) · Avg pollster grade 2.3 / 3.0

Every poll in the average

Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.

35%40%45%50%55%Mar ’26May ’26Jul ’26Sep ’26Nov ’26AtlasIntel · Oct 28 – Nov 1, 2026: Flanagan 48%AtlasIntel · Oct 28 – Nov 1, 2026: Tafoya 46%InsiderAdvantage · Oct 29–30, 2026: Flanagan 49%InsiderAdvantage · Oct 29–30, 2026: Tafoya 46%SurveyUSA · Oct 8–12, 2026: Flanagan 45%SurveyUSA · Oct 8–12, 2026: Tafoya 42%GQR · Oct 1–4, 2026: Flanagan 50%GQR · Oct 1–4, 2026: Tafoya 42%Big Data Poll · Sep 29–30, 2026: Flanagan 46%Big Data Poll · Sep 29–30, 2026: Tafoya 44%SurveyUSA · Sep 9–14, 2026: Flanagan 42%SurveyUSA · Sep 9–14, 2026: Tafoya 42%Quantus Insights · Sep 8–10, 2026: Flanagan 48.2%Quantus Insights · Sep 8–10, 2026: Tafoya 44.4%SurveyUSA · Aug 13–17, 2026: Flanagan 46%SurveyUSA · Aug 13–17, 2026: Tafoya 41%Emerson College · Feb 6–8, 2026: Flanagan 47.1%Emerson College · Feb 6–8, 2026: Tafoya 40.6%47.4 — current average44.2 — current average

Polls in this average

Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Peggy Flanagan and Michele Tafoya. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.

PollsterGradeDatesSampleFlanagan %Tafoya %Margin
AtlasIntel2.7Oct 28 – Nov 1, 20262,133 LV4846D+2.0↗
InsiderAdvantage2.0Oct 29–30, 20261,200 LV4946D+3.0↗
SurveyUSA2.8Oct 8–12, 2026718 LV4542D+3.0↗
GQRD partisan2.0Oct 1–4, 2026800 LV5042D+8.0↗
Big Data Poll1.1Sep 29–30, 2026622 LV4644D+2.0↗
SurveyUSA2.8Sep 9–14, 2026654 LV4242Even↗
Quantus Insights—Sep 8–10, 2026720 LV48.244.4D+3.8↗
SurveyUSA2.8Aug 13–17, 2026661 LV4641D+5.0↗
Emerson College2.9Feb 6–8, 20261,000 LV47.140.6D+6.5↗

Other 2026 Senate polls in Minnesota

General-election polls for this race that are not in the average — they tested a different matchup than Flanagan vs Tafoya. Shown for transparency; primaries are excluded entirely.

PollsterDatesTop results
Emerson CollegeFeb 6–8, 2026Angie Craig 46.6 · Michele Tafoya 40.2
Public Policy PollingD partisanSep 15–16, 2025Angie Craig 47 · Rep 43
Public Policy PollingD partisanSep 15–16, 2025Peggy Flanagan 46 · Rep 44

Candidates

Democrats
  • Angie Craig
  • Peggy Flanagan
Republicans
  • Michele Tafoya
  • Rep

Party labels curated from public sources.