Michigan Senate 2026
Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.
D+3.7
Abdul El-Sayed (D) 48.3% vs Mike Rogers (R) 44.5%
49 polls in the average · latest Nov 1, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size
Matchup: verified nominees ✓ · Avg pollster grade 2.2 / 3.0
Every poll in the average
Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.
Polls in this average
Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | El-Sayed % | Rogers % | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 3.0 | Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2026 | 1,011 LV | 53 | 42 | D+11.0 | ↗ |
| YouGov | 3.0 | Oct 26–29, 2026 | 2,093 LV | 51 | 47 | D+4.0 | ↗ |
| Upswing ResearchD partisan | — | Oct 24–28, 2026 | 505 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 | ↗ |
| CNN/SSRS | — | Oct 20–27, 2026 | 768 LV | 49 | 42 | D+7.0 | ↗ |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2.4 | Oct 26–27, 2026 | 636 LV | 51 | 44 | D+7.0 | ↗ |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | — | Oct 8–23, 2026 | 1,383 LV | 50.5 | 43.1 | D+7.4 | ↗ |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | — | Oct 19–22, 2026 | 600 LV | 51.4 | 45.1 | D+6.3 | ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2.0 | Oct 21–22, 2026 | 1,200 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 | ↗ |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | — | Oct 2–19, 2026 | 836 LV | 48 | 45.5 | D+2.5 | ↗ |
| Marist University | — | Oct 15–18, 2026 | — | 50 | 48 | D+2.0 | ↗ |
| The Tyson GroupR partisan | 1.1 | Oct 6–8, 2026 | 600 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 | ↗ |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2.4 | Oct 1, 2026 | 682 LV | 46 | 41 | D+5.0 | ↗ |
| Z to A ResearchD partisan | — | Sep 28 – Oct 1, 2026 | 483 LV | 49 | 42 | D+7.0 | ↗ |
| Trafalgar GroupR partisan | 0.7 | Sep 28–30, 2026 | 1,085 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 | ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2.8 | Sep 24–28, 2026 | 1,028 LV | 50 | 49 | D+1.0 | ↗ |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | — | Sep 20–27, 2026 | 800 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 | ↗ |
| The Tyson GroupR partisan | 1.1 | Sep 24–27, 2026 | 600 LV | 44 | 43 | D+1.0 | ↗ |
| co/efficient | 1.1 | Sep 21–23, 2026 | 843 LV | 50 | 50 | Even | ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 3.0 | Sep 15–22, 2026 | 605 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 | ↗ |
| Cygnal/Beacon Research | — | Sep 18–21, 2026 | 600 LV | 45 | 40 | D+5.0 | ↗ |
| Suffolk University | 2.9 | Sep 16–20, 2026 | 500 LV | 47 | 40 | D+7.0 | ↗ |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2.0 | Sep 16–17, 2026 | 1,200 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 | ↗ |
| Emerson College | 2.9 | Sep 12–14, 2026 | 1,000 LV | 48.2 | 45.7 | D+2.5 | ↗ |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government | 2.7 | Sep 10–14, 2026 | 803 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 | ↗ |
| Trafalgar GroupR partisan | 0.7 | Sep 7–9, 2026 | 1,079 LV | 46.3 | 44.8 | D+1.5 | ↗ |
| EPIC-MRA | 1.9 | Aug 22–28, 2026 | 600 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4.0 | ↗ |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | — | Aug 10–20, 2026 | 779 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 | ↗ |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | — | Aug 10–20, 2026 | 913 RV | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 | ↗ |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | — | Aug 11–17, 2026 | 800 RV | 46 | 39 | D+7.0 | ↗ |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 1.7 | Aug 9–11, 2026 | 877 LV | 48 | 47 | D+1.0 | ↗ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2.8 | Aug 6–10, 2026 | 1,006 RV | 47 | 51 | R+4.0 | ↗ |
| GBAO StrategiesD partisan | — | Aug 6–10, 2026 | 800 LV | 50 | 44 | D+6.0 | ↗ |
| TIPP InsightsR partisan | 1.8 | Aug 6–10, 2026 | 1,528 RV | 45 | 42 | D+3.0 | ↗ |
| EPIC-MRA | 1.9 | Jul 24–31, 2026 | 600 LV | 43 | 46 | R+3.0 | |
| SoCal StrategiesR partisan | — | Jul 28–30, 2026 | 640 LV | 41 | 42 | R+1.0 | ↗ |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2.4 | Jul 28–29, 2026 | 672 LV | 45 | 45 | Even | ↗ |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | — | Jul 22–24, 2026 | 600 LV | 38.7 | 49 | R+10.3 | ↗ |
| Quantus Insights | — | Jun 29–30, 2026 | 947 LV | 45.2 | 44.1 | D+1.1 | ↗ |
| Zenith ResearchD partisan | — | Jun 11–14, 2026 | 602 LV | 45 | 42 | D+3.0 | ↗ |
| Tulchin ResearchD partisan | 0.9 | Jun 2–4, 2026 | 500 LV | 46 | 41 | D+5.0 | ↗ |
| TIPP InsightsR partisan | 1.8 | May 20–23, 2026 | 1,163 LV | 43 | 42 | D+1.0 | ↗ |
| TIPP InsightsR partisan | 1.8 | May 20–23, 2026 | 1,456 RV | 40 | 40 | Even | ↗ |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2.4 | May 1–7, 2026 | 607 LV | 42 | 41 | D+1.0 | ↗ |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | — | Apr 28 – May 1, 2026 | 600 LV | 40 | 45 | R+5.0 | ↗ |
| Emerson College | 2.9 | Jan 24–25, 2026 | 1,000 LV | 42.5 | 42.8 | R+0.3 | ↗ |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | — | Jan 2–6, 2026 | 600 LV | 42 | 48 | R+6.0 | ↗ |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2.4 | Nov 18–21, 2025 | 616 LV | 38 | 41 | R+3.0 | ↗ |
| Rosetta Stone | — | Oct 23–25, 2025 | 637 LV | 31 | 45 | R+14.0 | ↗ |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | — | May 5–8, 2025 | 600 RV | 41 | 47 | R+6.0 | ↗ |
Other 2026 Senate polls in Michigan
General-election polls for this race that are not in the average — they tested a different matchup than El-Sayed vs Rogers. Shown for transparency; primaries are excluded entirely.
| Pollster | Dates | Top results |
|---|---|---|
| EPIC-MRA | Jul 24–31, 2026 | Haley Stevens 44 · Mike Rogers 42 |
| SoCal StrategiesR partisan | Jul 28–30, 2026 | Haley Stevens 44 · Mike Rogers 42 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | Jul 28–29, 2026 | Mike Rogers 45 · Haley Stevens 41 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | Jul 22–24, 2026 | Haley Stevens 45.5 · Mike Rogers 44.7 |
| Quantus Insights | Jun 29–30, 2026 | Mike Rogers 45.3 · Mallory McMorrow 44.4 |
| Quantus Insights | Jun 29–30, 2026 | Haley Stevens 45.1 · Mike Rogers 43.7 |
| Zenith ResearchD partisan | Jun 11–14, 2026 | Haley Stevens 43 · Mike Rogers 42 |
| Zenith ResearchD partisan | Jun 11–14, 2026 | Mallory McMorrow 44 · Mike Rogers 42 |
| TIPP InsightsR partisan | May 20–23, 2026 | Haley Stevens 45 · Mike Rogers 38 |
| TIPP InsightsR partisan | May 20–23, 2026 | Mallory McMorrow 45 · Mike Rogers 42 |
| TIPP InsightsR partisan | May 20–23, 2026 | Mallory McMorrow 42 · Mike Rogers 39 |
| TIPP InsightsR partisan | May 20–23, 2026 | Haley Stevens 48 · Mike Rogers 41 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | May 1–7, 2026 | Haley Stevens 42 · Mike Rogers 39 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | May 1–7, 2026 | Mallory McMorrow 43 · Mike Rogers 41 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | Apr 28 – May 1, 2026 | Mike Rogers 43 · Mallory McMorrow 41 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | Apr 28 – May 1, 2026 | Mike Rogers 44 · Haley Stevens 42 |
| Emerson College | Jan 24–25, 2026 | Mallory McMorrow 45.7 · Mike Rogers 42.6 |
| Emerson College | Jan 24–25, 2026 | Haley Stevens 47.3 · Mike Rogers 41.6 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | Jan 2–6, 2026 | Haley Stevens 44 · Mike Rogers 44 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | Jan 2–6, 2026 | Mike Rogers 46 · Mallory McMorrow 42 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | Nov 18–21, 2025 | Mike Rogers 42 · Haley Stevens 40 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | Nov 18–21, 2025 | Mike Rogers 44 · Mallory McMorrow 38 |
| EPIC-MRA | Nov 6–11, 2025 | Mallory McMorrow 43 · Mike Rogers 42 |
| EPIC-MRA | Nov 6–11, 2025 | Haley Stevens 44 · Mike Rogers 42 |
| Rosetta Stone | Oct 23–25, 2025 | Mike Rogers 47 · Haley Stevens 40 |
| Rosetta Stone | Oct 23–25, 2025 | Mike Rogers 46 · Mallory McMorrow 39 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | Jun 12–16, 2025 | Mike Rogers 48 · Mallory McMorrow 44 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | Jun 12–16, 2025 | Haley Stevens 47 · Mike Rogers 45 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | May 5–8, 2025 | Haley Stevens 45 · Mike Rogers 44 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | May 5–8, 2025 | Mike Rogers 46 · Mallory McMorrow 42 |
| Target Insyght | Mar 3–6, 2025 | Mike Rogers 41 · Haley Stevens 35 |
Candidates
Democrats
- Abdul El-Sayed
- Haley Stevens
Republicans
- Mike Rogers
Party labels curated from public sources.