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Massachusetts Senate 2026

Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.

D+24.6

Ed Markey (D) 54.1% vs John Deaton (R) 29.5%

14 polls in the average · latest Oct 31, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size

Matchup: most-polled pairing (primary not yet decided) · Avg pollster grade 2.5 / 3.0

Every poll in the average

Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.

20%30%40%50%60%Apr ’25Jul ’25Oct ’25Jan ’26Apr ’26Jul ’26Oct ’26University of New Hampshire · Oct 27–31, 2026: Markey 53%University of New Hampshire · Oct 27–31, 2026: Deaton 32%University of New Hampshire · Oct 7–18, 2026: Markey 55%University of New Hampshire · Oct 7–18, 2026: Deaton 26%Suffolk University · Oct 14–17, 2026: Markey 60%Suffolk University · Oct 14–17, 2026: Deaton 32%University of New Hampshire · Oct 5–12, 2026: Markey 56%University of New Hampshire · Oct 5–12, 2026: Deaton 29%MassINC Polling Group · Sep 14–22, 2026: Markey 52%MassINC Polling Group · Sep 14–22, 2026: Deaton 26%University of New Hampshire · Sep 17–21, 2026: Markey 53%University of New Hampshire · Sep 17–21, 2026: Deaton 30%University of New Hampshire · Aug 20–24, 2026: Markey 49%University of New Hampshire · Aug 20–24, 2026: Deaton 30%University of New Hampshire · Aug 5–12, 2026: Markey 51%University of New Hampshire · Aug 5–12, 2026: Deaton 30%University of New Hampshire · Jun 18–23, 2026: Markey 50%University of New Hampshire · Jun 18–23, 2026: Deaton 34%Suffolk University · Jun 8–12, 2026: Markey 55%Suffolk University · Jun 8–12, 2026: Deaton 30%University of New Hampshire · Apr 16–20, 2026: Markey 55%University of New Hampshire · Apr 16–20, 2026: Deaton 32%University of New Hampshire · Feb 12–16, 2026: Markey 56%University of New Hampshire · Feb 12–16, 2026: Deaton 27%Suffolk University · Nov 19–23, 2025: Markey 54%Suffolk University · Nov 19–23, 2025: Deaton 31%SurveyUSA · Feb 28 – Mar 4, 2025: Markey 45%SurveyUSA · Feb 28 – Mar 4, 2025: Deaton 26%54.1 — current average29.5 — current average

Polls in this average

Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Ed Markey and John Deaton. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.

PollsterGradeDatesSampleMarkey %Deaton %Margin
University of New Hampshire2.4Oct 27–31, 2026905 LV5332D+21.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Oct 7–18, 2026850 LV5526D+29.0↗
Suffolk University2.9Oct 14–17, 2026500 LV6032D+28.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Oct 5–12, 2026800 RV5629D+27.0↗
MassINC Polling Group2.8Sep 14–22, 2026800 LV5226D+26.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Sep 17–21, 2026564 LV5330D+23.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Aug 20–24, 2026881 LV4930D+19.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Aug 5–12, 2026800 RV5130D+21.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Jun 18–23, 2026623 LV5034D+16.0↗
Suffolk University2.9Jun 8–12, 2026500 RV5530D+25.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Apr 16–20, 2026603 LV5532D+23.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Feb 12–16, 2026616 LV5627D+29.0↗
Suffolk University2.9Nov 19–23, 2025500 RV5431D+23.0↗
SurveyUSA2.8Feb 28 – Mar 4, 2025775 RV4526D+19.0↗

Other 2026 Senate polls in Massachusetts

General-election polls for this race that are not in the average — they tested a different matchup than Markey vs Deaton. Shown for transparency; primaries are excluded entirely.

PollsterDatesTop results
University of New HampshireAug 20–24, 2026Seth Moulton 38 · John Deaton 25 (+1 more)
University of New HampshireAug 5–12, 2026Seth Moulton 49 · John Deaton 25
University of New HampshireJun 18–23, 2026Seth Moulton 50 · John Deaton 30
Suffolk UniversityJun 8–12, 2026Seth Moulton 54 · John Deaton 26
University of New HampshireApr 16–20, 2026Seth Moulton 56 · John Deaton 25
University of New HampshireFeb 12–16, 2026Seth Moulton 59 · John Deaton 23
Suffolk UniversityNov 19–23, 2025Seth Moulton 52 · John Deaton 29

Candidates

Democrats
  • Ed Markey
  • Seth Moulton
Republicans
  • John Deaton

Party labels curated from public sources.