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Kansas Senate 2026

Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.

D+1.7

Adam Hamilton (D) 45.0% vs Roger Marshall (R) 43.4%

2 polls in the average · latest Sep 16, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size

Matchup: verified nominees ✓ · Avg pollster grade 2.9 / 3.0

Limited polling. This average is based on only 2 polls, so it can swing sharply with each new poll. Treat it as a rough indication, not a precise estimate.

Every poll in the average

Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.

40%45%50%55%60%Mar ’26May ’26Jul ’26Sep ’26Emerson College · Sep 15–16, 2026: Hamilton 45%Emerson College · Sep 15–16, 2026: Marshall 43%Tavern Research · Jan 26–28, 2026: Hamilton 46%Tavern Research · Jan 26–28, 2026: Marshall 54%45.0 — current average43.4 — current average

Polls in this average

Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Adam Hamilton and Roger Marshall. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.

PollsterGradeDatesSampleHamilton %Marshall %Margin
Emerson College2.9Sep 15–16, 2026750 LV4543D+2.0↗
Tavern Research—Jan 26–28, 20261,013 LV4654R+8.0↗

Candidates

Democrats
  • Adam Hamilton
Republicans
  • Roger Marshall

Party labels curated from public sources.