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Florida Senate 2026

Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.

R+4.0

Ashley Moody (R) 46.8% vs Alexander Vindman (D) 42.8%

12 polls in the average · latest Jul 17, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size

Matchup: most-polled pairing (primary not yet decided) · Avg pollster grade 1.6 / 3.0

Every poll in the average

Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.

35%40%45%50%55%Mar ’26Apr ’26May ’26Jun ’26Jul ’26University of New Hampshire · Jul 8–17, 2026: Vindman 40%University of New Hampshire · Jul 8–17, 2026: Moody 50%Change Research · Jun 11–14, 2026: Vindman 43%Change Research · Jun 11–14, 2026: Moody 46%Change Research · Jun 11–14, 2026: Vindman 46%Change Research · Jun 11–14, 2026: Moody 46%McLaughlin & Associates · Jun 3–7, 2026: Vindman 40%McLaughlin & Associates · Jun 3–7, 2026: Moody 47%Change Research · May 13–16, 2026: Vindman 47%Change Research · May 13–16, 2026: Moody 45%Change Research · May 13–16, 2026: Vindman 47%Change Research · May 13–16, 2026: Moody 45%Cherry Communications · May 1–9, 2026: Vindman 40%Cherry Communications · May 1–9, 2026: Moody 48%Stetson University · Mar 25 – Apr 13, 2026: Vindman 42%Stetson University · Mar 25 – Apr 13, 2026: Moody 49%Echelon Insights · Apr 3–9, 2026: Vindman 43%Echelon Insights · Apr 3–9, 2026: Moody 50%MDW Communications · Mar 27 – Apr 3, 2026: Vindman 42%MDW Communications · Mar 27 – Apr 3, 2026: Moody 43%Emerson College · Mar 29–31, 2026: Vindman 38%Emerson College · Mar 29–31, 2026: Moody 45.9%University of New Hampshire · Feb 21 – Mar 2, 2026: Vindman 38%University of New Hampshire · Feb 21 – Mar 2, 2026: Moody 45%46.8 — current average42.8 — current average

Polls in this average

Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Alexander Vindman and Ashley Moody. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.

PollsterGradeDatesSampleVindman %Moody %Margin
University of New Hampshire2.4Jul 8–17, 2026848 LV4050R+10.0↗
Change ResearchD partisan1.4Jun 11–14, 20261,273 RV4346R+3.0↗
Change ResearchD partisan1.4Jun 11–14, 20261,015 LV4646Even↗
McLaughlin & AssociatesR partisan0.5Jun 3–7, 2026800 LV4047R+7.0↗
Change Research1.4May 13–16, 20261,593 LV4745D+2.0↗
Change Research1.4May 13–16, 20262,070 LV4745D+2.0↗
Cherry CommunicationsR partisan1.0May 1–9, 2026604 LV4048R+8.0↗
Stetson University—Mar 25 – Apr 13, 2026848 LV4249R+7.0↗
Echelon Insights2.7Apr 3–9, 2026406 LV4350R+7.0↗
MDW Communications—Mar 27 – Apr 3, 20261,834 LV4243R+1.0↗
Emerson College2.9Mar 29–31, 20261,125 LV3845.9R+7.9↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Feb 21 – Mar 2, 2026786 LV3845R+7.0↗

Other 2026 Senate polls in Florida

General-election polls for this race that are not in the average — they tested a different matchup than Vindman vs Moody. Shown for transparency; primaries are excluded entirely.

PollsterDatesTop results
St. Pete PollsSep 15–17, 2026Ashley Moody 45.2 · Angie Nixon 44.8
Quantus InsightsSep 8–10, 2026Ashley Moody 50.1 · Angie Nixon 42.7
Change ResearchSep 7–9, 2026Angie Nixon 47 · Ashley Moody 47
University of New HampshireJul 8–17, 2026Ashley Moody 50 · Angie Nixon 42
Stetson UniversityMar 25 – Apr 13, 2026Ashley Moody 51 · Angie Nixon 38
Emerson CollegeMar 29–31, 2026Ashley Moody 47 · Angie Nixon 36
University of New HampshireFeb 21 – Mar 2, 2026Ashley Moody 46 · Angie Nixon 38

Candidates

Democrats
  • Alexander Vindman
  • Angie Nixon
Republicans
  • Ashley Moody

Party labels curated from public sources.