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Florida Senate 2026

Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.

R+5.5

Ashley Moody (R) 48.8% vs Angie Nixon (D) 43.4%

19 polls in the average · latest Oct 31, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size

Matchup: most-polled pairing (primary not yet decided) · Avg pollster grade 1.9 / 3.0

Every poll in the average

Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.

30%35%40%45%50%55%Mar ’26May ’26Jul ’26Sep ’26Nov ’26RedBox Research · Oct 30–31, 2026: Nixon 45%RedBox Research · Oct 30–31, 2026: Moody 47%ActiVote · Oct 17–27, 2026: Nixon 47%ActiVote · Oct 17–27, 2026: Moody 53%Echelon Insights · Oct 16–23, 2026: Nixon 43%Echelon Insights · Oct 16–23, 2026: Moody 51%co/efficient · Oct 18–20, 2026: Nixon 40%co/efficient · Oct 18–20, 2026: Moody 48%University of New Hampshire · Oct 12–19, 2026: Nixon 45%University of New Hampshire · Oct 12–19, 2026: Moody 49%MDW · Oct 4–10, 2026: Nixon 42%MDW · Oct 4–10, 2026: Moody 48%St. Pete Polls · Oct 5–7, 2026: Nixon 45%St. Pete Polls · Oct 5–7, 2026: Moody 47%Targoz Market Research · Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026: Nixon 42%Targoz Market Research · Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026: Moody 52%Targoz Market Research · Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026: Nixon 38%Targoz Market Research · Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026: Moody 50%Change Research · Sep 25–27, 2026: Nixon 47%Change Research · Sep 25–27, 2026: Moody 48%InsiderAdvantage · Sep 20–21, 2026: Nixon 41.8%InsiderAdvantage · Sep 20–21, 2026: Moody 49.3%Stetson University · Sep 14–21, 2026: Nixon 40%Stetson University · Sep 14–21, 2026: Moody 51%St. Pete Polls · Sep 15–17, 2026: Nixon 44.8%St. Pete Polls · Sep 15–17, 2026: Moody 45.2%Quantus Insights · Sep 8–10, 2026: Nixon 42.7%Quantus Insights · Sep 8–10, 2026: Moody 50.1%Change Research · Sep 7–9, 2026: Nixon 47%Change Research · Sep 7–9, 2026: Moody 47%University of New Hampshire · Jul 8–17, 2026: Nixon 42%University of New Hampshire · Jul 8–17, 2026: Moody 50%Stetson University · Mar 25 – Apr 13, 2026: Nixon 38%Stetson University · Mar 25 – Apr 13, 2026: Moody 51%Emerson College · Mar 29–31, 2026: Nixon 36%Emerson College · Mar 29–31, 2026: Moody 47%University of New Hampshire · Feb 21 – Mar 2, 2026: Nixon 38%University of New Hampshire · Feb 21 – Mar 2, 2026: Moody 46%48.8 — current average43.4 — current average

Polls in this average

Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Angie Nixon and Ashley Moody. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.

PollsterGradeDatesSampleNixon %Moody %Margin
RedBox ResearchD partisan—Oct 30–31, 20262,898 LV4547R+2.0↗
ActiVote—Oct 17–27, 2026400 LV4753R+6.0↗
Echelon Insights2.7Oct 16–23, 2026515 LV4351R+8.0↗
co/efficientR partisan1.1Oct 18–20, 20261,014 LV4048R+8.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Oct 12–19, 20261,414 LV4549R+4.0↗
MDW—Oct 4–10, 2026800 LV4248R+6.0↗
St. Pete Polls2.4Oct 5–7, 2026836 LV4547R+2.0↗
Targoz Market Research1.8Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026857 LV4252R+10.0↗
Targoz Market Research1.8Sep 28 – Oct 4, 20261,200 RV3850R+12.0↗
Change Research1.4Sep 25–27, 20261,063 LV4748R+1.0↗
InsiderAdvantage2.0Sep 20–21, 2026600 LV41.849.3R+7.5↗
Stetson University1.5Sep 14–21, 2026830 LV4051R+11.0↗
St. Pete Polls2.4Sep 15–17, 2026913 LV44.845.2R+0.4↗
Quantus Insights—Sep 8–10, 2026733 LV42.750.1R+7.4↗
Change Research1.4Sep 7–9, 20261,107 LV4747Even↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Jul 8–17, 2026848 LV4250R+8.0↗
Stetson University1.5Mar 25 – Apr 13, 2026848 LV3851R+13.0↗
Emerson College2.9Mar 29–31, 20261,125 LV3647R+11.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Feb 21 – Mar 2, 2026768 LV3846R+8.0↗

Other 2026 Senate polls in Florida

General-election polls for this race that are not in the average — they tested a different matchup than Nixon vs Moody. Shown for transparency; primaries are excluded entirely.

PollsterDatesTop results
University of New HampshireJul 8–17, 2026Ashley Moody 50 · Alexander Vindman 40
Change ResearchD partisanJun 11–14, 2026Ashley Moody 46 · Alexander Vindman 43
Change ResearchD partisanJun 11–14, 2026Alexander Vindman 46 · Ashley Moody 46
McLaughlin & AssociatesR partisanJun 3–7, 2026Ashley Moody 47 · Alexander Vindman 40
Change ResearchMay 13–16, 2026Alexander Vindman 47 · Ashley Moody 45
Change ResearchMay 13–16, 2026Alexander Vindman 47 · Ashley Moody 45
Cherry CommunicationsR partisanMay 1–9, 2026Ashley Moody 48 · Alexander Vindman 40
Stetson UniversityMar 25 – Apr 13, 2026Ashley Moody 49 · Alexander Vindman 42
Echelon InsightsApr 3–9, 2026Ashley Moody 50 · Alexander Vindman 43
MDW CommunicationsMar 27 – Apr 3, 2026Ashley Moody 43 · Alexander Vindman 42
Emerson CollegeMar 29–31, 2026Ashley Moody 45.9 · Alexander Vindman 38
University of New HampshireFeb 21 – Mar 2, 2026Ashley Moody 45 · Alexander Vindman 38

Candidates

Democrats
  • Alexander Vindman
  • Angie Nixon
Republicans
  • Ashley Moody

Party labels curated from public sources.