Florida Governor 2026
Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.
Byron Donalds (R) 43.8% vs David Jolly (D) 43.1%
18 polls in the average · latest Sep 17, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size
Matchup: most-polled pairing (primary not yet decided) · Avg pollster grade 1.9 / 3.0
Every poll in the average
Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.
Polls in this average
Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both David Jolly and Byron Donalds. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | Jolly % | Donalds % | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | 2.4 | Sep 15–17, 2026 | 913 LV | 43.4 | 43.5 | R+0.1 | ↗ |
| Change Research | 1.4 | Sep 7–9, 2026 | 1,107 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 | ↗ |
| Targoz Market Research | 1.8 | Jul 20–26, 2026 | 1,026 RV | 38 | 45 | R+7.0 | ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | 2.4 | Jul 8–17, 2026 | 848 LV | 41 | 46 | R+5.0 | ↗ |
| Change Research | 1.4 | May 13–16, 2026 | 1,593 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4.0 | ↗ |
| Change Research | 1.4 | May 13–16, 2026 | 2,070 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4.0 | ↗ |
| Cherry CommunicationsR partisan | 1.0 | May 1–9, 2026 | 604 LV | 39 | 47 | R+8.0 | ↗ |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | — | Apr 27, 2026 | 687 LV | 40 | 40 | Even | ↗ |
| Echelon Insights | 2.7 | Apr 3–9, 2026 | 406 LV | 43 | 49 | R+6.0 | ↗ |
| MDW Communications | — | Mar 27 – Apr 3, 2026 | 1,834 LV | 40.5 | 41.2 | R+0.7 | ↗ |
| Emerson College | 2.9 | Mar 29–31, 2026 | 1,125 LV | 39.4 | 44.2 | R+4.8 | ↗ |
| University of New Hampshire | 2.4 | Feb 21 – Mar 2, 2026 | 786 LV | 36 | 42 | R+6.0 | ↗ |
| Public Sentiment Institute | — | Feb 20, 2026 | 200 RV | 42.3 | 35.8 | D+6.5 | ↗ |
| Targoz Market Research | 1.8 | Feb 13–16, 2026 | 1,200 RV | 34 | 36 | R+2.0 | ↗ |
| University of New HampshireD partisan | 2.4 | Oct 15–25, 2025 | 728 LV | 34 | 45 | R+11.0 | ↗ |
| Targoz Market Research | 1.8 | Sep 16–18, 2025 | 1,118 RV | 32 | 36 | R+4.0 | ↗ |
| McLaughlin & AssociatesR partisan | 0.5 | Aug 25–27, 2025 | 800 LV | 41 | 49 | R+8.0 | ↗ |
| Victory Insights | 1.3 | Jun 7–10, 2025 | 600 LV | 31.4 | 36.7 | R+5.3 | ↗ |
Other 2026 Governor polls in Florida
General-election polls for this race that are not in the average — they tested a different matchup than Jolly vs Donalds. Shown for transparency; primaries are excluded entirely.
| Pollster | Dates | Top results |
|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | Jul 20–26, 2026 | Jay Collins 44 · David Jolly 39 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | Apr 27, 2026 | James Fishback 43 · David Jolly 38 |
| Stetson University | Mar 25 – Apr 13, 2026 | Byron Donalds 46 · Jerry Demings 42 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9, 2026 | Byron Donalds 48 · Jerry Demings 44 |
| University of New Hampshire | Feb 21 – Mar 2, 2026 | Byron Donalds 43 · Jerry Demings 36 |
| University of New HampshireD partisan | Oct 15–25, 2025 | Byron Donalds 45 · Jerry Demings 33 |
Candidates
- David Jolly
- Jerry Demings
- Byron Donalds
- James Fishback
- Jay Collins
Party labels curated from public sources.