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California Governor 2026

Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.

D+23.3

Xavier Becerra (D) 57.6% vs Steve Hilton (R) 34.3%

9 polls in the average · latest Oct 25, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size

Matchup: verified nominees ✓ · Avg pollster grade 2.7 / 3.0

Every poll in the average

Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.

30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%Jul ’26Aug ’26Sep ’26Oct ’26Nov ’26UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies · Oct 19–25, 2026: Becerra 61%UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies · Oct 19–25, 2026: Hilton 34%SurveyUSA · Oct 19–24, 2026: Becerra 54%SurveyUSA · Oct 19–24, 2026: Hilton 32%Emerson College · Oct 17–19, 2026: Becerra 64%Emerson College · Oct 17–19, 2026: Hilton 36%University of New Hampshire · Oct 9–14, 2026: Becerra 55%University of New Hampshire · Oct 9–14, 2026: Hilton 35%SurveyUSA · Sep 15–20, 2026: Becerra 55%SurveyUSA · Sep 15–20, 2026: Hilton 33%UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies · Sep 15–20, 2026: Becerra 58%UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies · Sep 15–20, 2026: Hilton 33%University of New Hampshire · Sep 11–16, 2026: Becerra 54%University of New Hampshire · Sep 11–16, 2026: Hilton 36%UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies · Aug 3–9, 2026: Becerra 55%UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies · Aug 3–9, 2026: Hilton 37%Kreate Strategies · Jun 13–17, 2026: Becerra 58%Kreate Strategies · Jun 13–17, 2026: Hilton 33%57.6 — current average34.3 — current average

Polls in this average

Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.

PollsterGradeDatesSampleBecerra %Hilton %Margin
UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies—Oct 19–25, 20261,477 LV6134D+27.0↗
SurveyUSA2.8Oct 19–24, 2026799 LV5432D+22.0↗
Emerson College2.9Oct 17–19, 20261,000 LV6436D+28.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Oct 9–14, 2026909 LV5535D+20.0↗
SurveyUSA2.8Sep 15–20, 2026742 LV5533D+22.0↗
UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies—Sep 15–20, 20264,512 LV5833D+25.0↗
University of New Hampshire2.4Sep 11–16, 20261,983 LV5436D+18.0↗
UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies—Aug 3–9, 20262,310 LV5537D+18.0↗
Kreate Strategies—Jun 13–17, 2026900 LV5833D+25.0↗

Candidates

Democrats
  • Xavier Becerra
Republicans
  • Steve Hilton

Party labels curated from public sources.