Hedge

← All races

Arkansas Senate 2026

Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.

R+12.8

Tom Cotton (R) 52.0% vs Hallie Shoffner (D) 39.3%

5 polls in the average · latest Oct 28, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size

Matchup: verified nominees ✓

Every poll in the average

Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.

30%35%40%45%50%55%60%Mar ’26May ’26Jul ’26Sep ’26Nov ’26Grayhouse · Oct 27–28, 2026: Shoffner 39%Grayhouse · Oct 27–28, 2026: Cotton 55%Hendrix College · Oct 8–13, 2026: Shoffner 41%Hendrix College · Oct 8–13, 2026: Cotton 50%Grayhouse · Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2026: Shoffner 40%Grayhouse · Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2026: Cotton 51%J.L. Partners · Aug 14–18, 2026: Shoffner 35%J.L. Partners · Aug 14–18, 2026: Cotton 51%Grayhouse · Feb 7–9, 2026: Shoffner 36%Grayhouse · Feb 7–9, 2026: Cotton 58%52.0 — current average39.3 — current average

Polls in this average

Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Hallie Shoffner and Tom Cotton. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.

PollsterGradeDatesSampleShoffner %Cotton %Margin
GrayhouseR partisan—Oct 27–28, 2026509 LV3955R+16.0↗
Hendrix College0.9Oct 8–13, 2026709 LV4150R+9.0↗
Grayhouse—Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2026550 LV4051R+11.0↗
J.L. Partners1.6Aug 14–18, 2026803 LV3551R+16.0↗
GrayhouseR partisan—Feb 7–9, 2026550 LV3658R+22.0↗

Candidates

Democrats
  • Hallie Shoffner
Republicans
  • Tom Cotton

Party labels curated from public sources.