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Arkansas Senate 2026

Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.

R+16.3

Tom Cotton (R) 51.3% vs Hallie Shoffner (D) 35.0%

2 polls in the average · latest Aug 18, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size

Matchup: verified nominees ✓ · Avg pollster grade 1.6 / 3.0

Limited polling. This average is based on only 2 polls, so it can swing sharply with each new poll. Treat it as a rough indication, not a precise estimate.

Every poll in the average

Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.

30%35%40%45%50%55%60%Feb ’26Mar ’26Apr ’26May ’26Jun ’26Jul ’26Aug ’26Sep ’26J.L. Partners · Aug 14–18, 2026: Shoffner 35%J.L. Partners · Aug 14–18, 2026: Cotton 51%Grayhouse · Feb 7–9, 2026: Shoffner 36%Grayhouse · Feb 7–9, 2026: Cotton 58%51.3 — current average35.0 — current average

Polls in this average

Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Hallie Shoffner and Tom Cotton. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.

PollsterGradeDatesSampleShoffner %Cotton %Margin
J.L. Partners1.6Aug 14–18, 2026803 LV3551R+16.0↗
GrayhouseR partisan—Feb 7–9, 2026550 LV3658R+22.0↗

Candidates

Democrats
  • Hallie Shoffner
Republicans
  • Tom Cotton

Party labels curated from public sources.