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Alaska Senate 2026

Polling average and every underlying poll — published numbers come only from the precomputed race_averages table.

D+1.7

Mary Peltola (D) 49.7% vs Dan Sullivan (R) 48.0%

15 polls in the average · latest Sep 17, 2026 · weighted by recency (45-day half-life) and sample size

Matchup: most-polled pairing (primary not yet decided) · Avg pollster grade 1.8 / 3.0

Every poll in the average

Each poll appears as two dots at its end date. Dashed lines mark the current published average — no trend line is drawn, by design.

40%45%50%55%Sep ’25Nov ’25Jan ’26Mar ’26May ’26Jul ’26Sep ’26co/efficient · Sep 14–17, 2026: Peltola 46%co/efficient · Sep 14–17, 2026: Sullivan 49%Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research · Sep 8–11, 2026: Peltola 53%Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research · Sep 8–11, 2026: Sullivan 47%Alaska Survey Research · Aug 20–23, 2026: Peltola 50.6%Alaska Survey Research · Aug 20–23, 2026: Sullivan 49.4%Alaska Survey Research · Aug 2–5, 2026: Peltola 50.8%Alaska Survey Research · Aug 2–5, 2026: Sullivan 49.2%The New York Times/Siena University · Jun 15–29, 2026: Peltola 45%The New York Times/Siena University · Jun 15–29, 2026: Sullivan 47%Alaska Survey Research · Jun 4–7, 2026: Peltola 49.4%Alaska Survey Research · Jun 4–7, 2026: Sullivan 44.2%Alaska Survey Research · May 14–17, 2026: Peltola 48.4%Alaska Survey Research · May 14–17, 2026: Sullivan 43.8%Alaska Survey Research · Apr 16–19, 2026: Peltola 50.8%Alaska Survey Research · Apr 16–19, 2026: Sullivan 47.3%Alaska Survey Research · Apr 16–19, 2026: Peltola 52%Alaska Survey Research · Apr 16–19, 2026: Sullivan 48%Alaska Survey Research · Mar 19–22, 2026: Peltola 52.4%Alaska Survey Research · Mar 19–22, 2026: Sullivan 47.6%Public Policy Polling · Jan 16–17, 2026: Peltola 49%Public Policy Polling · Jan 16–17, 2026: Sullivan 47%Alaska Survey Research · Jan 8–11, 2026: Peltola 48%Alaska Survey Research · Jan 8–11, 2026: Sullivan 46.4%Data for Progress · Oct 17–23, 2025: Peltola 46%Data for Progress · Oct 17–23, 2025: Sullivan 45%Alaska Survey Research · Jul 29 – Aug 1, 2025: Peltola 42.5%Alaska Survey Research · Jul 29 – Aug 1, 2025: Sullivan 46.7%Data for Progress · Jul 21–27, 2025: Peltola 45%Data for Progress · Jul 21–27, 2025: Sullivan 46%49.7 — current average48.0 — current average

Polls in this average

Selection matches refresh_race_averages(): general-election polls of this race that tested both Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan. Partisan and internal polls are included in the average (flagged below), matching the published methodology.

PollsterGradeDatesSamplePeltola %Sullivan %Margin
co/efficient1.1Sep 14–17, 2026799 LV4649R+3.0↗
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research1.7Sep 8–11, 2026800 LV5347D+6.0↗
Alaska Survey Research1.9Aug 20–23, 20261,495 LV50.649.4D+1.2↗
Alaska Survey Research1.9Aug 2–5, 20261,371 LV50.849.2D+1.6↗
The New York Times/Siena University3.0Jun 15–29, 2026593 LV4547R+2.0↗
Alaska Survey Research1.9Jun 4–7, 20261,393 LV49.444.2D+5.2↗
Alaska Survey Research1.9May 14–17, 20261,401 LV48.443.8D+4.6↗
Alaska Survey Research1.9Apr 16–19, 2026—50.847.3D+3.5↗
Alaska Survey Research1.9Apr 16–19, 20261,946 LV5248D+4.0↗
Alaska Survey Research1.9Mar 19–22, 20261,283 LV52.447.6D+4.8↗
Public Policy PollingD partisan1.4Jan 16–17, 2026611 RV4947D+2.0↗
Alaska Survey Research1.9Jan 8–11, 20261,681 LV4846.4D+1.6↗
Data for ProgressD partisan2.6Oct 17–23, 2025823 LV4645D+1.0↗
Alaska Survey Research1.9Jul 29 – Aug 1, 20251,613 LV42.546.7R+4.2↗
Data for Progress2.6Jul 21–27, 2025678 LV4546R+1.0↗

Other 2026 Senate polls in Alaska

General-election polls for this race that are not in the average — they tested a different matchup than Peltola vs Sullivan. Shown for transparency; primaries are excluded entirely.

PollsterDatesTop results
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 10–15, 2025Mary Peltola 48 · Dan Sullvian 46

Candidates

Democrats
  • Mary Peltola
Republicans
  • Dan Sullivan
  • Dan Sullvian
  • Gerald Heikes

Party labels curated from public sources.